Project Update - 6/30

So as I had explained before, my research for the purposes of the DNC and this fellowship have changed slightly. There are essentially three phases for the research project, which will hopefully be finished by the first week of September, if not by the convention itself.

First, I have compiled a list of all superdelegates excluding Florida and Michigan (new lists are not yet available) including their state and position if applicable. I have denoted in the database which candidate the superdelegate has supported. I will then go through and determine whether the superdelegate has pledged support in a way that contradicts their constituency. For example, if a superdelegate has pledged support to Barack Obama, but their specific constituency voted in majority for Hillary Clinton, there is a contradiction. I will also consider an superdelegate who has not pledged support to either candidate to automatically be against their constituency. After all of these numbers are evaluated, a simple percentage number will be calculate to determine what portion of the superdelegates voted against their constituents.

The next part of the project will involve re-creating the entire democratic primary season after removing superdelegates. There will be no superdelegates in any state totals, and the national threshold to nominate will be recalculated to reflect the absence of the superdelegates. This data will then be analyzed to see if the elections could have ended soon, and to see who would win the election given the new circumstances.

Finally, all of this information will be broken down into written form, and compiled as a paper evaluating the entire democratic superdelegate system.

Rove's Analogy and Some Racism

Posted on a Jake Tappers blog today are comments about the presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama. Tapper's blog had Karl Rove quoted as labeling Senator Obama as "coolly arrogant" and equated him to a guy "at a country club making snide comments about everyone else."

I do not for a single second buy any of Rove's comments, nor do I believe him to be a credible source of information. In the coming months, it is very possible that we will see this campaign shift toward an increasingly negative direction. Race will undoubtedly be an issue.

Another article had John McCain quoted as having no tolerance for any sort of racism during this campaign. This I do believe. Senator McCain is a man of dignity. This, however, cannot be said for some of the people who want him to win. There have already been instances of racist advertisement during the primary season in North Carolina, Texas and South Dakota. It should be noted that McCain and other Republicans have denounced this behavior.

I encourage everyone to keep an eye open and their minds turned on the messages being portrayed throughout the rest of this Presidential campaign season. There will be many excellent messages with many valid points; there will also be information fit for the trash can. Be critical of what you hear.

Democrat VP

Now that the primary season is effectively over and the race of Obama vs. McCain has been decided, a new set of questions arises. The most prominent question on the democratic side of the race is who will be Barack Obama's running mate. Some speculate that it will in fact be Hillary Clinton. I disagree. Clinton has shown to be very capable, but has also taken some pretty sizable shots at Obama. I would not be surprised if a woman was selected to be the running mate - perhaps the governor of Kansas or the governor or Arizona. Only time will tell. It is also at this point that I will begin collecting data for my research project, comparing which superdelegates went against their constituencies prior to June 3rd (the end of the primary season), and a new section addressing how the primary would have gone without the superdelegates at all. This new part will effectively remove all superdelegates and recalculate the number of delegates. I will then calculate a new majority number needed for the nomination, and see when and how the primary would have ended, and if there is a major difference.

American History Made Again

After a long and hard fought campaign battle, the Democratic primary has seemingly come to a close. After last weekend's Rules Committee hearings to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates, the primary race took one final turn in Barack Obama's favor. After he was awarded a number of the Michigan and Florida delegates, he was put in a position to clench the threshold number of delegates needed to win. In addition, the last 2 weeks have seen a number of Democratic Superdelegates switch from supporting Clinton to supporting Obama. We are now in the general election season, with Barack Obama as the United States first African-American Presidential nominee.