Kerry, Clinton Come Out Swinging...and I was there.

Last night, through an extreme level of luck, some creativity, and the desire to witness history, I was able to make it onto the floor of the Democratic National Convention. In a mass of humanity that would make the most social person feel overwhelmed, a slipped in with the New York delegation to watch some of the most renouned leaders of the Democratic Party.

John Kerry and Bill Clinton gave out standing speeches. Kerry's may have been the best of his career (Where was that four years ago?). Bill Clinton put his differences aside and fully pledged his support to Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Both men slammed John McCain and George Bush, with Kerry implying that McCain was a flip-flopper.

Biden was more sentimental in his acceptance, but did not hesitate to throw some jabs at his friend John McCain and even have a little Freudian slip, confusing McCain and Bush. Last night surpassed all of my expectations, and I was there to witness a little bit of American history.

In true Obama fashion, the Senator showed up with three minutes left in the official convention schedule, which made my entire experience here even better. As I write this, I am waiting to see if the NJ Delegation will provide me with tickets to tonight's event at Invesco...I will remain hopeful.

Clinton's Grand Slam

Last night Hillary Clinton delivered an address that is arguably the best of her career. In an appeal to unite the Democratic Party behind Barack Obama, she poured her heart out about her love for the party and the values she truely believes in. A speech that definitely had the potential to make one laugh, as well as cry, attacked John McCain on a number of issues. She even went so far as to call John McCain and George Bush twins and made reference to their appearance in the Twin Cities next week. My favorite quote of the public address, "No way, No how, No McCain."

In a rare and exciting opportunity, I was able to attend a join delegation party between New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Florida. At this closed event, I was able to meet Governors Corzine, Rendell, and Patterson, in addition to the entire Clinton family. Hillary and Bill Clinton both made remarks to the private crowd consisting of people from states that Hillary carried. Her message for unity continued behind closed doors, and she was very grateful for the love and support she received.

Barack Obama can only hope that Bill Clinton's address tonight will continue the message of unity and swing some of the 21% of Hillary's supporters who currently favor John McCain. Let the party continue...

And The Dream Continues...

The last couple days working for the New Jersey delegation has been fantastic. Aside from meeting every major politician from the state and the state party chairman, I have been put in contact with several people who have given me insight on my project. Everyone here has been very welcoming and receptive to a college volunteer.

The first night of the convention was deemed by many to be an emotional and inspiring event. The two standout speakers of the evening were in my opinion Michelle Obama and Senator Ted Kennedy. A convention hall (and the NJ delegation watch party) was filled with tearful supporters who were moved by messages that continued to promote the American Dream as well as party unity.

Some political analysts, such as James Carville, believe that the Democratic Party may have wasted the first night of their convention by pressing unity behind Obama and not going on the immediate offensive against Senator John McCain. Given the lackluster poll response from Joe Biden (Gallup has Obama trailing McCain by a statistically insignificant 2 points), the Dems need all the help they can get. We will see if tonight's address from Hillary Clinton can put aside some of the party differences and give Barack Obama the convention he needs.

Convention Update

Today, another student and I made the decision to go the New Jersey delegation office in an attempt to get hired. We were successful, and I am incredibly excited with this new opportunity. Not only do I have the ability to serve my home state, I have immediate access to all delegation events and the opportunity to meet delegates and elected officials.

A very exciting development that comes along with this new placement is the ability for me to add depth to my superdelegate research by actually being able to interview them about their views on the system. I will be updating as frequently as possible.

Additionally, I would encourage everyone to follow this year's DNC very closely, as it is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and involved political events of our lifetime.

Obama-Biden Ticket and My Weekend in Denver...

Yesterday was a day of wonderful opportunity. After spending my morning at the Pepsi Center and receiving a sneak peak at the convention floor, I had the opportunity to meet and be addressed by Gov. Howard Dean, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee. His address, speaking about the importance of my generation, was one of the most inspiring speeches I have ever heard in my life.

On another topic, at roughly 1:15AM mountain time, I received my text message officially declaring Senator Joe Biden as Barack Obama's running mate for the 2008 Presidential Election. I see a lot of parallels between this year's contest and the election of 1960 between Senator John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard M. Nixon. It is the the idea of the familiar past challenging the progress of the future. The inexperienced Obama's pick of Joe Biden, a very experienced Senator, is reminiscent of Kennedy's selection of Lyndon Johnson, who was one of the most respected and experienced senators of his time.

The selection of Joe Biden provides a nice balance to the Democratic Ticket. His six terms in the US Senate, and his great level of foreign policy experience help to counter Barack Obama's relative lack of foreign policy experience and time in Washington. It also seems as though Biden will be attack dog on John McCain. It will be interesting to see how this developes, and if John McCain will use his VP selection as an opportunity to strike back.

Finally to Denver...

This post is going to serve as an introductory, journal-styled entry until I gather more of the academic information we have been discussing in seminar. I am currently staying at Regis University with The Washington Center, who will be providing academic preparation and fieldwork placement for the Democratic National Convention, which starts in six short days. We have been getting academic lectures and been placed into small discussion groups to foster intellectual growth and critical thinking on various political matters. Much of the discussion has already given me further insights on other positions and ideas to consider when writing the substantive portion of my paper to accompany the data set(s). I am looking forward to the next two weeks I am to spend here in Denver and will try to post daily as new ideas, information, and insights become available.

Another Edwards VP Nominee?

Speaker-of-the-House Nancy Pelosi has made a point to start pushing for a Congressman, Rep. Chet Edwards D-TX, to be considered for the VP nomination on the presumptive Obama ticket. Edwards name is now being considered with the likes of Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, and Gov. Tom Kline of Virginia.

The most powerful woman in America could have pushed Edwards name on to the list for a number of reasons. One dominant reason may have to do with geography. Rep. Edwards is from Texas, and his district includes President George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford, Tx. In an attempt to try and sew up a state that has been held by Republicans for the last two Presidential elections, Pelosi's geographic variation tactic may work. A lack of name recognition may be hurtful, but time will truly show if the Democratic party will run another "Edwards" for VP.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/150485

100 Days To Go

Today, July 28, 2008 marks 100 days until the 2008 Presidential Election. On the Democratic side, Senator Barack Obama has just finished up his world tour throughout parts of the middle east and Europe.

Obama's journey gave him a large jump in the Gallup poll. He now leads Senator John McCain by a 9 point margin, 49 for Obama and 40 for McCain.

It appears that the positive response from people around the world may have ignited a bit more support for Obama in the United States. If Senator Obama can continue this type of support building and strengthening of momentum, he should be a very strong candidate come November 4th.

P.S. 17 days until I leave for Denver, Colorado for the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

Obama's Fund Raising Woes...

At this point Obama has had Clinton appear with him on numerous occasions to promote party unity, as well as raise money that both Senators are in need of. Clinton still has $22 Million in campaign debt, and Obama will have a hard fought general election campaign against Senator John McCain. Obama's biggest problem with regard to fund raising thus far is getting Clinton supports to financially back his campaign. Many are hesitant to do so unless he shifts some of his positions to be more aligned with Clinton's point of view. It will be interesting to watch the dollar drama continue to unfold, and to see how it actually ends up.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/09/clinton.obama/index.html

A little project update:

The initial data set with superdelegate information is about 80% complete. The second set should not take as much time, but I predict the final datasets and report will be completed or near-completed prior to my attendance of the DNC.

Project Update - 6/30

So as I had explained before, my research for the purposes of the DNC and this fellowship have changed slightly. There are essentially three phases for the research project, which will hopefully be finished by the first week of September, if not by the convention itself.

First, I have compiled a list of all superdelegates excluding Florida and Michigan (new lists are not yet available) including their state and position if applicable. I have denoted in the database which candidate the superdelegate has supported. I will then go through and determine whether the superdelegate has pledged support in a way that contradicts their constituency. For example, if a superdelegate has pledged support to Barack Obama, but their specific constituency voted in majority for Hillary Clinton, there is a contradiction. I will also consider an superdelegate who has not pledged support to either candidate to automatically be against their constituency. After all of these numbers are evaluated, a simple percentage number will be calculate to determine what portion of the superdelegates voted against their constituents.

The next part of the project will involve re-creating the entire democratic primary season after removing superdelegates. There will be no superdelegates in any state totals, and the national threshold to nominate will be recalculated to reflect the absence of the superdelegates. This data will then be analyzed to see if the elections could have ended soon, and to see who would win the election given the new circumstances.

Finally, all of this information will be broken down into written form, and compiled as a paper evaluating the entire democratic superdelegate system.

Rove's Analogy and Some Racism

Posted on a Jake Tappers blog today are comments about the presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama. Tapper's blog had Karl Rove quoted as labeling Senator Obama as "coolly arrogant" and equated him to a guy "at a country club making snide comments about everyone else."

I do not for a single second buy any of Rove's comments, nor do I believe him to be a credible source of information. In the coming months, it is very possible that we will see this campaign shift toward an increasingly negative direction. Race will undoubtedly be an issue.

Another article had John McCain quoted as having no tolerance for any sort of racism during this campaign. This I do believe. Senator McCain is a man of dignity. This, however, cannot be said for some of the people who want him to win. There have already been instances of racist advertisement during the primary season in North Carolina, Texas and South Dakota. It should be noted that McCain and other Republicans have denounced this behavior.

I encourage everyone to keep an eye open and their minds turned on the messages being portrayed throughout the rest of this Presidential campaign season. There will be many excellent messages with many valid points; there will also be information fit for the trash can. Be critical of what you hear.

Democrat VP

Now that the primary season is effectively over and the race of Obama vs. McCain has been decided, a new set of questions arises. The most prominent question on the democratic side of the race is who will be Barack Obama's running mate. Some speculate that it will in fact be Hillary Clinton. I disagree. Clinton has shown to be very capable, but has also taken some pretty sizable shots at Obama. I would not be surprised if a woman was selected to be the running mate - perhaps the governor of Kansas or the governor or Arizona. Only time will tell. It is also at this point that I will begin collecting data for my research project, comparing which superdelegates went against their constituencies prior to June 3rd (the end of the primary season), and a new section addressing how the primary would have gone without the superdelegates at all. This new part will effectively remove all superdelegates and recalculate the number of delegates. I will then calculate a new majority number needed for the nomination, and see when and how the primary would have ended, and if there is a major difference.

American History Made Again

After a long and hard fought campaign battle, the Democratic primary has seemingly come to a close. After last weekend's Rules Committee hearings to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates, the primary race took one final turn in Barack Obama's favor. After he was awarded a number of the Michigan and Florida delegates, he was put in a position to clench the threshold number of delegates needed to win. In addition, the last 2 weeks have seen a number of Democratic Superdelegates switch from supporting Clinton to supporting Obama. We are now in the general election season, with Barack Obama as the United States first African-American Presidential nominee.

Courting the Superdelegates

With Hillary Clinton's recent victory in Pennsylvania, some media outlets have claimed that Barack Obama "cannot seal the deal" and secure the Democratic Party's nomination for the General election in November. Despite the fact that the Pennsylvania primary was deemed to be crucial, it has provided almost no change in delegate margins between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. At this point, there can only be a strengthening of the role superdelegates will play leading up to this year's Democratic National Convention.

On Saturday, April 26th Hillary Clinton challenged Barack Obama to a Lincoln-Douglass styled unmoderated political debate. Obama has not declined the challenge, but rather has stated that it will not occur before the North Carolina and Indiana primaries which are set to take place on May 6, 2008. I feel that at this point the courting of democratic superdelegates will increase in some form, thought not enough to discourage the average voter. The results of the May primaries have the potential to shift the remaining course of this campaign season depending on who wins.

April 2008

For my first blog post, I feel it is probably most appropriate to present what I will be attempting to identify by attending the Democratic National Convention this coming August. As anyone who is following the news regarding the Democratic Primary knows, the race is incredibly close and every delegate will count. I will be looking specifically at the “Superdelegates” and the system under which they function. I want to see if the superdelegates vote the way their specific constituency did, or if they side with a certain candidate. My goal is to create a database of all Democratic superdelegates and examine whether or not they side with their constituency initially and at the convention. At the end of the convention, the data will be compiled, and a final analysis of the superdelegates will be presented. By the numbers, does the system undermine democracy?

Announcement

The Whittier College Richard Nixon Fellowship program is taking full advantage of the 2008 presidential election year hubbub to bring exciting new opportunities to Whittier College students. The newly selected Nixon Fellows will attend the Republican and Democratic National Conventions this summer. Stephen Addezio '09 will attend the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado and Daniel Strauss '09 will attend the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota. Both will also be part of the Washington Center's National Political Convention Seminar this summer. Two other Nixon Fellows will be selected to attend the Presidential Inauguration in January 2009.