100 Days To Go

Today, July 28, 2008 marks 100 days until the 2008 Presidential Election. On the Democratic side, Senator Barack Obama has just finished up his world tour throughout parts of the middle east and Europe.

Obama's journey gave him a large jump in the Gallup poll. He now leads Senator John McCain by a 9 point margin, 49 for Obama and 40 for McCain.

It appears that the positive response from people around the world may have ignited a bit more support for Obama in the United States. If Senator Obama can continue this type of support building and strengthening of momentum, he should be a very strong candidate come November 4th.

P.S. 17 days until I leave for Denver, Colorado for the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

Obama's Fund Raising Woes...

At this point Obama has had Clinton appear with him on numerous occasions to promote party unity, as well as raise money that both Senators are in need of. Clinton still has $22 Million in campaign debt, and Obama will have a hard fought general election campaign against Senator John McCain. Obama's biggest problem with regard to fund raising thus far is getting Clinton supports to financially back his campaign. Many are hesitant to do so unless he shifts some of his positions to be more aligned with Clinton's point of view. It will be interesting to watch the dollar drama continue to unfold, and to see how it actually ends up.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/09/clinton.obama/index.html

A little project update:

The initial data set with superdelegate information is about 80% complete. The second set should not take as much time, but I predict the final datasets and report will be completed or near-completed prior to my attendance of the DNC.

Project Update - 6/30

So as I had explained before, my research for the purposes of the DNC and this fellowship have changed slightly. There are essentially three phases for the research project, which will hopefully be finished by the first week of September, if not by the convention itself.

First, I have compiled a list of all superdelegates excluding Florida and Michigan (new lists are not yet available) including their state and position if applicable. I have denoted in the database which candidate the superdelegate has supported. I will then go through and determine whether the superdelegate has pledged support in a way that contradicts their constituency. For example, if a superdelegate has pledged support to Barack Obama, but their specific constituency voted in majority for Hillary Clinton, there is a contradiction. I will also consider an superdelegate who has not pledged support to either candidate to automatically be against their constituency. After all of these numbers are evaluated, a simple percentage number will be calculate to determine what portion of the superdelegates voted against their constituents.

The next part of the project will involve re-creating the entire democratic primary season after removing superdelegates. There will be no superdelegates in any state totals, and the national threshold to nominate will be recalculated to reflect the absence of the superdelegates. This data will then be analyzed to see if the elections could have ended soon, and to see who would win the election given the new circumstances.

Finally, all of this information will be broken down into written form, and compiled as a paper evaluating the entire democratic superdelegate system.

Rove's Analogy and Some Racism

Posted on a Jake Tappers blog today are comments about the presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama. Tapper's blog had Karl Rove quoted as labeling Senator Obama as "coolly arrogant" and equated him to a guy "at a country club making snide comments about everyone else."

I do not for a single second buy any of Rove's comments, nor do I believe him to be a credible source of information. In the coming months, it is very possible that we will see this campaign shift toward an increasingly negative direction. Race will undoubtedly be an issue.

Another article had John McCain quoted as having no tolerance for any sort of racism during this campaign. This I do believe. Senator McCain is a man of dignity. This, however, cannot be said for some of the people who want him to win. There have already been instances of racist advertisement during the primary season in North Carolina, Texas and South Dakota. It should be noted that McCain and other Republicans have denounced this behavior.

I encourage everyone to keep an eye open and their minds turned on the messages being portrayed throughout the rest of this Presidential campaign season. There will be many excellent messages with many valid points; there will also be information fit for the trash can. Be critical of what you hear.

Democrat VP

Now that the primary season is effectively over and the race of Obama vs. McCain has been decided, a new set of questions arises. The most prominent question on the democratic side of the race is who will be Barack Obama's running mate. Some speculate that it will in fact be Hillary Clinton. I disagree. Clinton has shown to be very capable, but has also taken some pretty sizable shots at Obama. I would not be surprised if a woman was selected to be the running mate - perhaps the governor of Kansas or the governor or Arizona. Only time will tell. It is also at this point that I will begin collecting data for my research project, comparing which superdelegates went against their constituencies prior to June 3rd (the end of the primary season), and a new section addressing how the primary would have gone without the superdelegates at all. This new part will effectively remove all superdelegates and recalculate the number of delegates. I will then calculate a new majority number needed for the nomination, and see when and how the primary would have ended, and if there is a major difference.

American History Made Again

After a long and hard fought campaign battle, the Democratic primary has seemingly come to a close. After last weekend's Rules Committee hearings to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates, the primary race took one final turn in Barack Obama's favor. After he was awarded a number of the Michigan and Florida delegates, he was put in a position to clench the threshold number of delegates needed to win. In addition, the last 2 weeks have seen a number of Democratic Superdelegates switch from supporting Clinton to supporting Obama. We are now in the general election season, with Barack Obama as the United States first African-American Presidential nominee.

Courting the Superdelegates

With Hillary Clinton's recent victory in Pennsylvania, some media outlets have claimed that Barack Obama "cannot seal the deal" and secure the Democratic Party's nomination for the General election in November. Despite the fact that the Pennsylvania primary was deemed to be crucial, it has provided almost no change in delegate margins between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. At this point, there can only be a strengthening of the role superdelegates will play leading up to this year's Democratic National Convention.

On Saturday, April 26th Hillary Clinton challenged Barack Obama to a Lincoln-Douglass styled unmoderated political debate. Obama has not declined the challenge, but rather has stated that it will not occur before the North Carolina and Indiana primaries which are set to take place on May 6, 2008. I feel that at this point the courting of democratic superdelegates will increase in some form, thought not enough to discourage the average voter. The results of the May primaries have the potential to shift the remaining course of this campaign season depending on who wins.